So this bull market is five years old, we agree there. With more new all-time highs on the horizon, I still hear talk how this is a secular bear market. I don’t know how anyone can say that with a straight face, but they do. Not to mention bulls are still crushed on message boards for being bullish. That is very longer-term bullish to me.
I’m in the camp that March 2009 was it, that was the low. I didn’t say that at the time, no, but since late 2009 I’ve been saying it. Still saying it. Just three weeks ago today, when the world was ending and emerging markets were going to bring on a new bear market (many thought this, believe me), I noted on CNBC things actually looked good. Feels like a lifetime ago, it was just three weeks ago.
Which brings up an awesome chart and one that suggests this bull market could have at least another decade or more of gains coming. Now sure, it won’t be in a straight line and some of those years will be down – but bigger picture this secular bull market should see gains for many years to come.
The current 10-year annualized return for the Dow is just 5%. As you can see below, this is just average going back to 1910! In fact, bull markets don’t end until closer to 15 to 20 year runs and an annualized return of closer to 15%.
Now, everything isn’t perfect (it rarely is), as the 5-year annualized return is getting up near previous peaks. In fact, we are now above the peak in 2007, but well below some other peaks. So this is a potential near-term warning, but not a signal this bull market is dead either.
In the end, bigger picture the 10-year chart above says the secular bull is alive and well.