The Nasdaq just announced their annual changes to the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX). DISH Network Corporation (DISH), Illumina, Inc. (ILMN), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), TripAdvisor, Inc. (TRIP) and Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) were all added. Fossil Group, Inc. (FOSL), Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP), Nuance Communications, Inc. (NUAN), Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD) and DENTSPLY International Inc. (XRAY) were all removed.
This is where things get interesting. We’ve looked at this before and the names that are removed tend to outperform the names that were added! For a refresher, here’s what I said last year about it. In the end, it all comes down to expectations. If a company is removed, more often than not, a lot of bad things have been happening. Versus if it is added, the future looks very bright. Well, if you buy simply based on expectations, it is easier to beat lowered expectations versus higher expectations.
Check out how the changes from last December have turned out.
Sure enough, the names removed saw some big winners and just one [BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY)] is actually lower since the changes. Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is the prime example of what can happen when a company has good news and sentiment is very negative, as it has gained more than 300%. Last year, I was on Yahoo Breakout with Matt Nesto and mentioned why being removed could be very bullish and cited NFLX specifically as one to watch. Nice when it works.
So is this just a one-time thing? Last year played out, but what about longer-term? Here is the data going back since 2009. A year later, those removed are up nearly twice as much as those added.
Lastly, here are the results going clear back to 1995. Again, we see steady outperformance from those removed versus those added. Please note on this one, though; the issue is a lot of these tickers have changed and others simply don’t exist anymore. So be aware it isn’t 100% accurate, but is the best that we could find and I felt it was still worth sharing.
So will Sears or Fossil be huge winners when we look back this time next year? I sure wouldn’t want to bet against it.