74% of those polled were bullish over the next 6-12 months, the highest in 20 years of the poll. If everyone is bullish, then who is truly left to buy? Back in October (the poll comes out every six months), just 46% of those polled were bullish. Remember, since the end of October, we’ve made new all-time highs and rallied more than 10% on the SPX in the process. The logical question we must ask ourselves today is with the same people who were so very wrong in October when they were bears, is it worrisome they are bulls now?
Digging into the poll some more, 86% of those polled were bullish equities the next 6-12 months. Compare this with just 11% bullish fixed income (bonds) over the same timeframe, and you have two very different pictures. Now it is worth noting most of those polled are stock guys. In other words, they are normally going to be bullish stocks and bearish bonds – nothing shocking here. Still, the very lopsidedness of their opinion is what worries me.
Something else I found worthwhile was 45% of those polled said we are in the sixth or seventh inning of the current bull run.
Lastly, 70% think equities will be the top performing asset class the next 6-12 months, versus 16% for real estate, and just 11% for gold.
Now for fun, compare the sentiment in the covers of the recent two Big Money Polls. Back in October they wanted nothing to do with stocks.
Now they can’t get enough of them. Be aware of the potential contrarian implications here.