• AAII Bulls Leave the Building, Bears Back Up to July 2010 Panic Lows

    by  • April 11, 2013 9:28 am • Breaking News, Chartist Corner, Quick Hits • 7 Comments

    The AAII sentiment poll came out this morning and it is eye opening.  The bulls have left the building is the best way to sum it up.

    The bulls dropped to just 19.31%, the lowest level since …… (wait for it…..) March ’09.

    Not to be outdone, bears jumped up to 54.5%.  That was the highest level since the SPX panic lows of July ’10.  What is really interesting is the bears plus neutral readings checked in at a massive 81%.  This was the highest reading since 81.1% back in March ’09.  Thanks to the always spot on Chris Prybal in our QA department for crunching these numbers and doing the charts.

    We’ve been saying for a longtime now that this is one of the most hated bull markets ever.  I know that is kind of cliche to say, but there hasn’t ever been a time in history when new highs were made and sentiment is this bearish.  We like to say ‘buy low expectations, not low stock prices’ around here.  Well, this is yet another sign that expectations are still incredibly low and this can have a very bullish contrarian implications longer-term.


    7 Responses to AAII Bulls Leave the Building, Bears Back Up to July 2010 Panic Lows

    1. rk
      April 14, 2013 2:34 pm at 2:34 pm

      I think institutional investors are driving the market where as individual investors, like me, are getting more cautious of the market. Have seen what happened twice in the last dozen or so years.

    2. Fact Finder
      April 14, 2013 7:18 am at 7:18 am

      Strangely enough AAII survey is at odds w/ that of Investors Intelligence.

      • April 14, 2013 12:04 pm at 12:04 pm

        Yes, you are right. Also NAAIM is rather bullish. The AAII has always been more volatile though. Sure lived up to that this week.

        • rk
          April 15, 2013 10:13 am at 10:13 am

          Do you think a moving average of some sort give a better read?

    3. rk
      April 13, 2013 2:56 pm at 2:56 pm

      Are you aware that this weeks poll is based on less than half the people normally surveyed due to an email glitch? May be wont change the results or the conclusions.

      • April 14, 2013 12:03 pm at 12:03 pm

        Yes. Actually found that out after I wrote it, but great point. I guess they forgot to send out a reminder email? So apparently just the bears remembered to do it!

    4. April 12, 2013 8:45 am at 8:45 am

      This is because the Fed has been reckless with liquidity. On one hand we’re told everything is great the policies of the administration are working. Then we’re told it’s too fragile we need more stimulus and QE. It’s been since 2009, just get out of the way and let the markets develop as they should.

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