• Study of the Week: How Long Has The SPX Been Above The 200-Day Moving Average?

    by  • July 29, 2013 11:35 am • Broad Market Analysis, Quick Hits, Study of the Week • 0 Comments

    We all know the SPX is on a historic run since the November lows.  The big question is how good is this run?  Now there are lots of ways to examine this, here’s one way.

    The 200-day moving average is a nice longer-term trendline that traders use.  Turns out, the SPX has been above this trendline for an incredible 172 days and counting.

    This is pretty impressive, but it is only the 17th best streak since 1972.  The most recent streak to go this long was one that eventually hit 224 days and ended Aug. 1, 2011.  The longest streak is an amazing 525 days that ended in August ’98.

    Where does this one rank after 172 days though?  Well, it is up +24.40%, only six had a better performance during those 172 days.  The best 172 day performance belongs to ’83 and an amazing +43.17% rally.

    Lastly, what happens once the SPX finally goes back beneath its 200-day?  That first month is bad, but going out further doesn’t seem all that bearish.

    So there you go.  The SPX is still well above its 200-day here, so this streak is alive and well.  For more on my immediate market thoughts, be sure to check out Monday Morning Outlook.  




    Ryan Detrick is the Senior Technical Strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio. He joined Schaeffer’s in 2003 and is a frequent speaker and writer on stock market and economic issues and is widely sought after by financial media for his expertise and commentary. Mr. Detrick is a common guest on CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg Television and has been quoted in outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, USA Today, Reuters, the Associated Press, and others. With a decade of financial industry experience in the investment and financial services area, strengths include short-term trading with an eye toward timely technical- and sentiment-based trading opportunities, and advanced option trading strategies. Mr. Detrick received a BA in finance from Xavier University, an MBA in finance from Miami University, and has earned his Chartered Market Technician (CMT).


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