• Quick look at November Seasonality {DOW 30}

    by  • October 31, 2012 3:00 pm • Breaking News, Broad Market Analysis, Quick Hits • 1 Comment

    As we enter November, and the beginning of the seasonally strong period for equities from November – April (Opposite of “Sell in May, Go Away”) I’d like to take a quick look at historical Dow Jones Industrial Average returns since 1975.

    In the table below, I highlight each of the 30 tickers that comprise the index. I have the table sorted by strongest to weakest based upon average November returns. The table is color coded with green representing strength and red representing weakness within the index (table).

    I also included each equities Year-to-date percentage return in the far right column (it is also color coded similar to above parameters). I did this so the reader can have a frame of reference going into the new month on how each equity has fared so far this year.

    Here are a few stats that stood out to me:

    • Cisco Systems (CSCO) historically outperforms in November, CSCO is in the red YTD, so the entity needs a late year boost to save time (and money) for shareholders. You could say similar things for Hewlett Packard (HPQ)  (but not politely as HPQ has shed over 45% of its value this year alone…)
    • Home Depot (HD) and Wal Mart (WMT) also illustrate strength in November. HD has been mentioned a lot as beneficiary of the damage related to Hurricane Sandy and WMT with its re-introduced layaway policy continues to attract frugal consumers.
    • Kraft Foods (KFT) is the only DOW component that averages negative returns in the month of November (over the past 37 years). KFT shareholders won’t fret, however, as KFT recently split into two separate companies, one focusing on the domestic market (Kraft foods ticker is now KRFT) while the larger company Mondelez International (MDLZ) focuses on International growth opportunities.


    All in all, it appears that the majority of the components fare pretty well during the upcoming month.

    As an index, November stands apart as one of the strongest months for the DOW in terms of percentage returns, I hope this post helped shed light on which components have comprised the bulk of these gains over the years.




    Chris Prybal is a Quantitative Analyst who contributes fundamental, technical, and sentiment research as well as analysis to SchaeffersResearch.com. Chris holds a Bachelor’s degree in Finance from the University of Cincinnati and his research has been quoted on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, Barron’s and Forbes Magazine. Chris has analyzed and traded derivatives for over 15 years in addition to his research prowess. Chris can be followed on Twitter @ChrisPrybal


    One Response to Quick look at November Seasonality {DOW 30}

    1. October 31, 2012 4:03 pm at 4:03 pm

      Good stuff. Worth noting that JPM was also one of the most loved stocks in the recent Barron’s Big Money Poll.

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