• Daily Game Plan – Buckle Up

    by  • July 31, 2013 1:32 pm • Broad Market Analysis, Bryan Sapp’s Daily Game Plan, Charts to Watch • 0 Comments

    MARKET CHECK

    After rallying sharply off the open, stocks have reversed that strength and are now sitting near flat on the day.  Starting at 2:00 today with the FOMC statement, the next three days look to be a whirlwind.  All eyes are on the Fed today, but the rest of the week will likely be very eventful.  There is an ECB Policy decision tomorrow, and Friday will bring the July employment report.  Sentiment is very mixed into the next three days, as opinions on one side of the market of the other have been strong.  This creates the potential for big volatility, as there is capitulation possible on either side of the market.

    At present levels, the Russell 2000 is leading stocks, up by 0.3% on the day, with the Dow lagging, up only 0.1%.  Bonds are getting hit hard after the better-than-expected ADP Payroll and GDP numbers this morning, lower by about 0.7%.  Metals are getting hit into the FOMC statement, with gold off over 1% and silver 0.3% lower.

     

    CHART OF THE DAY

    Currencyshares Euro Trust (FXE) – This ETF tracks the Euro currency, and given the massive amount of market-moving data over the course of the next few days, a long volatility strategy makes a lot of sense to me.  Looking at the chart on a weekly basis, you’ll notice that the Bollinger Band width recently plummeted to an extreme low and is now ticking higher.  Additionally, implied volatiles on FXE options are dirt cheap, as the August monthly series is running at about 9%.  The weekly options on FXE are bid sharply up ahead of the week’s events, so it is preferable to play longer term and give this trade some time to play out.  Subscribers in Schaeffer’s Volatilty Trader service were recommended to enter this trade earlier today.

    I like buying an August 131 straddle here for about $2.10.  This trade will profit on a move above 133.10 or below 128.90 by August 16.

    courtesy of stockcharts.com

     

    WHAT I’M EXPECTING

    A roller coaster ride over the next three days.  Don’t get too caught up in short-term moves, and be very mindful of your risk into the events.  If I had to pick a side, I would look for an upside move in the S&P 500 above the 1700 level, but these are certainly events where anything is possible.  Don’t let price action in the indexes shake you out of your individual stock positions.

    About

    Bryan Sapp is a Senior Trading Analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research, where he has specialized in volatility-based options trading since early 2010. With Bryan at the helm, Schaeffer’s Volatility Trader generated a 2012 portfolio return of 70% for subscribers. This real-time option recommendation service exclusively trades short-term straddles. Prior to joining the research team at Schaeffer’s, Bryan honed his skills as a speculator by trading his own account, and playing poker professionally to pay his way through college. Bryan attended the University of Louisville, where he received his Bachelors in Economics and an MBA with an Entrepreneurship focus.

    http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/

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