• Chartist Corner: Will ’13 Follow ’54? ’95? Or ’87?

    by  • October 1, 2013 11:28 am • Breaking News, Chartist Corner • 0 Comments

    Let’s get one thing straight, ’13 is it’s own year and to randomly pick a year it’ll follow is a tough game.  None the less, back in April, I started noting how this year looked a lot like ’54 and ’95 – in terms of % up and % positive days.

    Well, after a huge first half of the year, ’13 has pulled back some from those two other years.

    What is important to note though, both of those years made major lows in late August/early September (sound familiar?) and had big rallies the last two months of the year.

    Ok, now what about ’87?  I’ve seen a lot of talk how this year looks a lot like ’87.  This is one of the better lists comparing the two years via @MktOutperform.

    Here’s the chart adding that year.

    Now, ’87 was up more than twice as much as this year, before it had that big October drop.  Also, portfolio insurance was all the rage back then.  Let’s just say we aren’t seeing that mentality anymore.  You can read my thoughts on why an ’87 crash won’t happen here.

    Time will obviously tell, but I still side with the potential for a strong fourth quarter.  As we could see a big chase for performance, as funds that have missed this strong year put their money to work.


    Ryan Detrick is the Senior Technical Strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio. He joined Schaeffer’s in 2003 and is a frequent speaker and writer on stock market and economic issues and is widely sought after by financial media for his expertise and commentary. Mr. Detrick is a common guest on CNBC, Fox Business, and Bloomberg Television and has been quoted in outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, USA Today, Reuters, the Associated Press, and others. With a decade of financial industry experience in the investment and financial services area, strengths include short-term trading with an eye toward timely technical- and sentiment-based trading opportunities, and advanced option trading strategies. Mr. Detrick received a BA in finance from Xavier University, an MBA in finance from Miami University, and has earned his Chartered Market Technician (CMT).


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