Let’s get one thing straight, ’13 is it’s own year and to randomly pick a year it’ll follow is a tough game. None the less, back in April, I started noting how this year looked a lot like ’54 and ’95 – in terms of % up and % positive days.
Well, after a huge first half of the year, ’13 has pulled back some from those two other years.
What is important to note though, both of those years made major lows in late August/early September (sound familiar?) and had big rallies the last two months of the year.
Here’s the chart adding that year.
Now, ’87 was up more than twice as much as this year, before it had that big October drop. Also, portfolio insurance was all the rage back then. Let’s just say we aren’t seeing that mentality anymore. You can read my thoughts on why an ’87 crash won’t happen here.
Time will obviously tell, but I still side with the potential for a strong fourth quarter. As we could see a big chase for performance, as funds that have missed this strong year put their money to work.